Bitcoin price fails to hold $20K again, but there is a silver lining

Markets briefly flashed green on September 27 as equities rebounded from September 26’s pullback, bringing thBitcoin (BTC) price back to the long-term descending trendline resistance, which currently sits at $20,100.

Unfortunately for bulls, the positive momentum for stocks and cryptocurrencies quickly eroded and the Bitcoin price gave up a majority of its intraday gains as it fell back below $19,000.

As has been the case since March 25, BTC price has been unable to kick above resistance for more than a few hours, and the September 27 break on the trendline continues the trend with successive bear flags seeing continuation to the downside.

According to Arcane Research, Bitcoin’s tight rally above $20,000 is relatively insignificant given that futures premiums remain low and it “does little to improve market risk appetite.”

Additional data from Arcane Research shows funding rates have turned neutral for the first time since September 13, but overall traders are reluctant to add longs given concerns over macro challenges and the ongoing threat of unfriendly crypto regulation.

There is a silver lining

As mentioned in previous analysis, despite breakouts and breakdowns, BTC price is simply trading within the same range of $24,300 to $17,600 for the past 103 days. To date, a catalyst to initiate a breakdown below swing lows or to push price above resistance and confirm the previous hurdle as support has yet to occur.

Fortunately, it’s not all doom and gloom for Bitcoin. A positive bit of news comes from in-chain research provider Glassnode, which noted that more mature investors have decided to pull back and hold their positions rather than sell at the current price.

According to the Revived Supply 1+ Years metric, an indicator that tracks the “total amount of coins that return to circulation after being untouched for at least 1 year,” the flow of latent supply shifting back into the active supply pool is “extremely low .”

The compression in mature spending seen in the latter stages of the 2018 bull market is absent during recent revisits below $20,000, suggesting that long-term owners are well accustomed to volatility and unwilling to sell at today’s prices.

Given that BTC is 72% down from its all-time high and some investors expect prices to crumble towards $10,000 in the next unexpected capitulation event, one can interpret the lack of panic selling by mature investors as a positive.