Is bitcoin ready for the next step?

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is the largest and the world’s first digital currency launched back in 2009 by the entity, Satoshi Nakamoto. As a digital currency, a defining characteristic of Bitcoin is that it operates without a central bank or single administrator. Instead, Bitcoin can be sent via peer-to-peer (P2P) networks, which are themselves absent of any intermediaries. Rather than being a physical currency, Bitcoins represent chunks of digital code that can be sent and received across a kind of distributed ledger network called a blockchain. Since Bitcoins are not issued or backed by any governments or central banks, it is considered to be legal tender. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are confirmed by a network of computers (or nodes) that solve a series of complex equations. This process is called Bitcoin mining. In exchange for Bitcoin mining, computers receive rewards in the form of new Bitcoins. Over time, mining becomes increasingly difficult, causing subsequent rewards to become smaller and smaller. Given the structure of code, only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. But in 2020, there were already 18.3 million Bitcoins in circulation. Bitcoin Makes History Since its launch back in 2009, Bitcoin has been the most popular and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization in the world. Its popularity has also contributed significantly to the release of thousands of other cryptocurrencies, which are now known as altcoins. At its inception, the crypto market was initially hegemonic, but currently the landscape contains countless altcoins. Bitcoin has also been controversial since its original launch. It has been heavily criticized for its use in illegal transactions and money laundering given its decentralized nature. Since Bitcoin is untraceable, this makes the cryptocurrency an ideal target for illegal behavior. Critics also point to the high electricity consumption for mining, violent price volatility and thefts from stock exchanges. Bitcoin has been seen by some as a speculative bubble due to the lack of oversight.

Bitcoin is the largest and the world’s first digital currency launched back in 2009 by the entity, Satoshi Nakamoto. As a digital currency, a defining characteristic of Bitcoin is that it operates without a central bank or single administrator. Instead, Bitcoin can be sent via peer-to-peer (P2P) networks, which are themselves absent of any intermediaries. Rather than being a physical currency, Bitcoins represent chunks of digital code that can be sent and received across a kind of distributed ledger network called a blockchain. Since Bitcoins are not issued or backed by any governments or central banks, it is considered to be legal tender. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are confirmed by a network of computers (or nodes) that solve a series of complex equations. This process is called Bitcoin mining. In exchange for Bitcoin mining, computers receive rewards in the form of new Bitcoins. Over time, mining becomes increasingly difficult, causing subsequent rewards to become smaller and smaller. Given the structure of code, only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. But in 2020, there were already 18.3 million Bitcoins in circulation. Bitcoin Makes History Since its launch back in 2009, Bitcoin has been the most popular and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization in the world. Its popularity has also contributed significantly to the release of thousands of other cryptocurrencies, which are now known as altcoins. At its inception, the crypto market was initially hegemonic, but currently the landscape contains countless altcoins. Bitcoin has also been controversial since its original launch. It has been heavily criticized for its use in illegal transactions and money laundering given its decentralized nature. Since Bitcoin is untraceable, this makes the cryptocurrency an ideal target for illegal behavior. Critics also point to the high electricity consumption for mining, violent price volatility and thefts from stock exchanges. Bitcoin has been seen by some as a speculative bubble due to the lack of oversight.
Read this term has seen two quick declines to $14,000 recently with one in May and one in June. The declines were rapid. The market price consolidated following the movements.

Since June 19, the price has consolidated between $17592 and $25400. More recently, the price moved up to test a downward trend line. The move moved above the falling 100-day MA (blue line on the chart above), but could not sustain momentum (the trend line instead halted the rally). Buyers had their shot above the 100-day MA. They failed thanks to the trend line.

The digital currency has moved back down towards the June low of $17592. The low this week came within $1,000 of the low.

My question is “Are we in another race to the downside?”

Given the consolidation, since June 19, the market may be clear. As mentioned also, the buyers had the chance to take the price above the 100 day MA, but found willing sellers on the trend line. Bearish.

If the price is to go lower, all bets will be off if the price goes above the 100 day MA of $21268. It is also close to the trend line. With the price at $18664, the risk is somewhat high up to $21268.

Is there a closer level of risk?

Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the tops of the past few days moved above the 200 hour MA on September 21 but failed. Again, the buyers got their chance and missed. The subsequent highs on September 22nd and today found sellers closer to that MA line.

As a result, the MA would be a closer risk level of $19379. Stay below is more bearish. Move over is more bullish (stop). That’s the risk.

A near-term lower stop could be $19084, which is where the 100 hour MA is found. Today, the price moved below that MA and stayed below. It is also bearish and could be a closer risk-defining level for traders looking for a quick opportunity.

Granted, those that are stopped can be triggered at a sneeze in bitcoin, but the thought is “it’s time” The price action speaks to me.

Hi…. bitcoin is not the easiest thing to trade, but the technical is technical if you look at Bitcoin, Microsoft, oil or GBPUSD. The chart looks bearish to me with defined risk towards either the hourly or daily MA/trend line. The reward of a break to a new low in 2022 could see the pair move towards the $11,000 area if the pair gains another steam behind it.

Time will tell, but that’s what the charts tell me.