Here’s why Bitcoin [BTC]The gain in September may be nothing more than a facade
The end of August was rough for Bitcoin [BTC] when the price dropped. However, September has bought some better days as the crypto registered only a slight decline in its seven-day performance.
This can be considered a sign of an upswing in the near future. At the time of writing, BTC was trading just below the $20,000 mark at $19,950.41 with a market capitalization of $381,836,195,229.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Although BTC’s one-month chart was largely painted red, Glassnode’s investors’ confidence in the coin did not seem to wane. This too can be regarded as positive for the coin.
With so many events happening, how soon can we expect the bulls to buckle and drive BTC’s next rally upwards?
What to expect?
Recently, the number of addresses with 1+ bitcoins just hit an ATH of 900,232, indicating that investors expect a price increase in the coming days.
📈 #Bitcoin $BTC The number of addresses with 1+ coins just reached an ATH of 900,232
Previous ATH of 900,198 was observed on September 1, 2022
See calculation: pic.twitter.com/uQBq8ygpyA
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) 3 September 2022
While opinions differ, several analysts spoke about their assessment of the situation. For example, TAnalyst, a popular Twitter handle, recently posted a chart that showed something interesting.
Additionally, according to the chart, a bullish wedge pattern was formed, indicating the possibility of Bitcoin’s next bull rally in the coming days.
#BITCOIN READY FOR A MASSIVE BULL RUN.
A falling wedge in one year implies a strong subsequent uptrend. pic.twitter.com/Jo4YmmykdZ
— TAnalyst (@AurelienOhayon) 2 September 2022
Bitcoin’s total exchange outflows also supported TAnalyst’s findings, with the figure slightly up, which is a bullish signal.
Source: Glassnode
Moreover, Bitcoin’s risk reserve ratio also dropped considerably. This could indicate a market bottom along with creating an opportunity for investors to accumulate as risk to reward increased.
Source: Glassnode
But on the other hand, some analysts say otherwise. In his assessment, Maartunn, analyst and author at CryptoQuant, pointed out in his evaluation that the bears may still have an advantage in the market.
According to the available data, an episode of miners moving Bitcoins to exchanges was followed by a price drop, as a similar trend was seen in May and June.
Source: CryptoQuant
Furthermore, since 4400 BTC was recently transferred on September 2nd from miners to exchanges, history may repeat itself. There is a chance that the BTC price will fall in the coming days.
Going forward
BTC’s four-hour chart painted a vague picture of price action as many indicators showed different readings. The EMA band indicated a possible bull run as the gap between the 20-day and 55-day EMA narrowed, creating an opportunity for a bullish crossover. Moreover, an ascending triangle formed, which further increased the chances of an upturn.
Source: TradingView
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) told a different story. The former registered a downward trend and the latter showed a bearish crossover. This minimizes the chances of northward eruptions in the short term.
