Bitcoin Price Has Bottomed; The coldest days of Crypto Winter are over – Ran Neuner and Steven Sidley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=/1-wFHKzihjE
With Bitcoin’s price below $20,000 in June, the worst days of crypto winter are over, according to Ran Neuner and Steven Sidley, who joined Kitco’s editor-in-chief and lead anchor, Michelle Makori, in a panel discussion.
“We’ve hit crypto rock bottom,” said Neuner, host of Crypto Banter, a popular crypto-themed podcast. “Crypto suffered one of the biggest liquidations we’ve ever seen. We had the collapse of the LUNA ecosystem, which is a $100 billion ecosystem, which caused a cascade of liquidations throughout the market.”
Sidley, a professor at the University of Johannesburg and head of the university’s Blockchain and CryptoVerse Research Group, agreed with Neuner, albeit with a few caveats.
“There are a couple of things that are still staring us in the face,” warned Sidley, who is also a best-selling author and director at Bridge Capital Future Advisory. “China deciding to invade Taiwan is a possible Black Swan event. If Russia decides to escalate its aggression all the way to nuclear weapons, that’s another Black Swan event … but in most respects I agree with Ran that we are at the end of [The Crypto Winter.]”
A Black Swan event is an unexpected event that has a significant impact on the markets.
Crypto Winter thaw
Neuner, who is also the co-founder and CEO of Onchain Capital, used the 200-week moving average of Bitcoin to support his claim that the cryptocurrency would continue its rise. The 200-week moving average is the longest measure of Bitcoin’s uptrend. Bitcoin’s spot price has only moved below this metric three times: in 2015, in 2020, and in 2022.
“Everytime [Bitcoin’s spot price hit the moving-average], it has rebounded and given investors tremendous returns, Neuner said. “The times it has gone below the 200-week moving average have been Black Swan events.”
However, Neuner said investors should look at the “macro environment,” which could affect Bitcoin’s price.
“As long as the macro environment continues to perform, I think we’ll be fine,” he said. “The odds are about 50-50 as to whether the Fed will hike [rates] by 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and I think the market has already priced in those rate increases. As for whether or not we’re bottoming out, I’m confident in saying that we’ve probably bottomed out in crypto, unless another Black Swan event happens… but I think we’ve had the coldest days of this winter. »
Bitcoin adoption
Asset management firm BlackRock recently announced a partnership with Coinbase to provide institutional clients with Bitcoin access. However, this did not seem to have any significant impact on Bitcoin’s price.
“In a bear market, the market doesn’t react to good news, and we know we’re very much in a bear market,” Neuner said. “We thought the BlackRock news would move the market, and it didn’t at all.”
Sidley added: “The BlackRock announcement was very profound. This [firm has] 10 trillion dollars in assets that they manage.”
However, he said Bitcoin’s price did not move after the BlackRock announcement due to adverse regulatory developments.
“It’s a regulatory pushback,” Sidley said. “Whereas BlackRock can say, ‘we’re going to give our clients exposure to [Bitcoin],’ everybody is now looking to the other side, which is the regulators trying to control it and slow it down.”
To find out Neuner and Sidley’s predictions for Bitcoin’s price, watch the video above.
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