Bitcoin Bear Market Above, Metric Hints As BTC Exchange Balance Hit 4-Year Low

by · July 29, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) may already begin its new macro uptrend if historical “hodl” habits repeat.

That was the conclusion from research on the latest data covers the amount of BTC supply rests for a year or more from July 2022.

Hodled BTC suggests the bear market is over

According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who uploaded his findings to social media on July 29, a “rounded top” formation in “headed” BTC is nearing completion.

When it does, price should respond – just as it has on several occasions before.

The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down supply according to when each Bitcoin last moved. A year ago or more – the one-year HODL wave – currently reflects the majority of supply.

Johal’s accompanying chart shows that the greater the proportion of total supply that is stationary for at least one year, the closer BTC/USD is to a macro bottom.

More importantly, however, a decline in the one-year HODL wave – indicating that accumulation is calming down – followed by the start of a reversal has always come at the start of a new long-term BTC price uptrend.

This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is therefore seen as a potential source of hope, with Bitcoin already making up lost ground.

In comments, Johal argued that few had paid attention to HODL Waves.

Bitcoin 1 Year+ HODL Wave Annotated Chart. Source: Miles Johal/Twitter

Currency balance lowest since 2018

Separate data from chain analytics firm Glassnode, meanwhile, highlighted the ongoing trend of Bitcoin leaving exchanges.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘gets interesting’ as BTC price hits 6-week high

BTC in exchange wallets now makes up just 12.6% of total supply, down 4.6% of total supply since the March 2020 crash, staff noted.

In BTC terms, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The figure is the lowest since July 2018.

BTC balance on stock chart. Source: Glassnode

Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the accelerating trend of delisting coins from exchanges.

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