Balaji Srinivasan ‘Not Backtracking’ on Massive Bitcoin (BTC) Play as Probability of US Debt Default Rises
Balaji Srinivasan says he is not backing down from his bold call that Bitcoin (BTC) will explode to $1,000,000 on the back of a US financial crisis.
In March, the former Coinbase CEO bet that Bitcoin would hit $1 million within three months, largely due to failing banks and hyperinflation.
He has previously said that bank runs happen much faster today, considering that we live in a digital world.
“I think we will see an exit from the US banking system towards Bitcoin in the next weeks and months and maybe years to come.
The exact 90 day timeline? You know, I don’t think it’s impossible for it to happen given how fast digital bank runs are happening, but directionally it’s a lot easier. Timing is hard, preparation is easy.”
While many have interpreted Srinivasan’s efforts as more of a statement or publicity stunt, he has says he has no intention of going back on the conversation.
“I’m not going back on anything. I said 10% chance of a fiat crisis happening in months, 70% chance in years, 19% chance in decades, 1% in centuries. But 10% is very high, and worth drawing attention to. Others also believe that the probability of government default at all times is high.”
The Bitcoin bull also points out that the probability of a US sovereign default recently hit an all-time high, potentially strengthening his side of the bet. He shares a chart showing the price of credit default swaps (CDS) on US 1-year bonds that have skyrocketed recently.
“Had to work out legal details but look for a game update soon.
Meanwhile, markets are also putting the probability of a US sovereign default at an all-time high. And that’s only debt ceiling-driven explicit default. Does not include all the routes to monetize debt.”
Analysts at Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) analysts have warned that the effects of a US default on the debt could be potentially catastrophic.
“The consequences of a potential default by the US government extend beyond the immediate impact on holders of government bonds. Large market dislocations and a sharp decline in economic activity could both be realistic possibilities.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $29,376, nearly 3,000% away from Srinivasan’s $1 million call.
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