Big week ahead for bitcoin and crypto: This will be decisive
The Bitcoin and crypto markets have had a strong weekly close. Bitcoin’s price moved right up into the current key resistance at $28,600. After seven failed attempts, this puts the price back just below the current key level that separates BTC from $30,000.
A strong price movement will also benefit the broader crypto market as the rotation in altcoins aka altcoin season has still not materialized. Bitcoin and crypto investors should therefore keep an eye on important macro data in the coming week.
Bitcoin and crypto face these key events
After a quiet start to the week, one of the most important macro measurements for the financial markets arrives on Wednesday 12 April with the US consumer price index (CPI). When the CPI data is released at 8:30am EST, expect to see more volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Investors will assess whether the Federal Reserve can push through another rate hike or whether it will hit the pause button in the face of stronger-than-expected falling inflation combined with the latest US labor market data. Last month’s CPI was 6.0% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis and 0.4% month-on-month (MoM).
In March, expectations for CPI YoY are 5.2% and 0.3% (MoM). A miss on expectations is likely to push the Bitcoin price lower as the market prices a higher likelihood of another Fed rate hike in May.
CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 61% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in May. If expectations are met or even exceeded, Bitcoin will likely head north.
Later that day, on Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 PM EST. The meeting minutes will reveal more details about the Fed’s projections and assessments for the latest interest rate decision. This makes Wednesday the most important day of the week.
On Thursday 13 April, both the US producer price index (PPI) and the first unemployment claims will be published at 8:30am EST. PPI MoM is forecast to come in at 0.0% (previously -0.1%), while core PPI MoM: is forecast to rise again to 0.3% (previously 0.0%).
Initial jobless claims are estimated at 216,000, up from 228,000. Already last week, PML and ISM private sector numbers showed small cracks in the US economy, while (the lagging indicator) US unemployment sent a mixed signal and fell marginally (from 3.6% to 3.5%).
Friday the 14th April at At 08.30 the US retail sales are released. Retail sales in March are expected to fall 0.5% MoM (previously -0.4%), while core retail sales are expected to fall 0.4% MoM (previously -0.1%). The data must be seen in the context of slowing economic growth and fears of recession.
At press time, the BTC price was trading at $28,258. A daily or even weekly close of Bitcoin above $28,600 would be extremely bullish.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
