Bitcoin traders’ eye level to keep as ‘decision time’ approaches for BTC price
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $23,000 on July 22 as attention increasingly focused on the upcoming weekly close.
BTC price needs to keep at least $22,400
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD found renewed strength after a brief drop towards $22,000.
The pair traded in a critical zone for bulls on the day, with the 50-day and 200-week moving averages (MAs) yet to turn from resistance to support.
Analysts held out the weekly candle to determine the strength of Bitcoin’s recent uptrend that at one point saw weekly gains of up to 25%.
“To perform a retracement of the 200-week MA as support, $BTC needs to weekly close above $22800,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote as part of a recent Twitter update.
For fellow trader Jibon, $22,400 was more important as a minimum level to end the week.
“Next week decision time $BTC will go 30-40K or 12-15K. I want weekly proximity above $22,401,” he told Twitter followers on the day.
While sticking to his forecast that the relief rally would go as high as $40,000 before another low macro low set in, Jibon acknowledged that Bitcoin was “still in a bear market” that would last into 2023.
“So all bullish trends are temporary moves,” he explained while discussing the prognosis.
In its latest market update released on the day, trading firm QCP Capital cautioned against the near-term potential for either Bitcoin or altcoins to rise much higher.
“As for spot direction, we are not sure if the upside momentum continues to a large extent,” researchers wrote.
“The speed of this move felt higher positioning driven (the market was shortchanged) and the market is starting to show some signs of exhaustion.”
QCP pointed to the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) on July 27 as a major volatility event to come.
Markets, it added, were now pricing in a 75 basis point hike in policy rates this month, rather than the 100 basis point higher option feared on the back of the inflation numbers.
“Since the high CPI print, the market has firmly priced out the likelihood of a 100 bps hike at the July FOMC,” the update said.
“At the moment, a 20% chance of 100bps is still priced in, but our view is that 75bps is the most the Fed will do. So expect another lift as 100bps gets fully priced out.”
Bets increase on dollar distribution
Meanwhile, as the US dollar index (DXY) consolidated below twenty-year highs, analysts were waiting for a long-term parabolic uptrend to show signs of cracking.
Related: Bulls or Bears? Both have a good chance when Friday’s Bitcoin options expire
The USD, as Cointelegraph continues to report, remains clearly inversely correlated with crypto-asset performance.
What happens when #DXY parabola and #TNX broken neck? Just a guess… #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/fgyCw8r6yB
— Evidence for Steve ⚡ (@decodejar) 22 July 2022
“It will be a good day when this finally breaks,” popular commentator Rickus in summary on the impact of a weaker dollar on risk assets.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trade involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
